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JP Morgan raises chance of US recession to 35% by end of this year
And events to watch this week
Matt Curda
August 13, 2024
Hello Investors!
Let’s see what’s moving the markets today.
Top 3 Market Highlights
Source: Leonardo AI
JP Morgan increased the probability of a recession by the end of 2024 from 25% to 35%.
What’s more, they predict a 45% chance of a recession by mid-2025, up from 35%.
Citing a slowing labor market and the dangers of layoffs are the main reasons.
It is important to watch the next labor market and consumer spending reports - whether it is something moderate and not breaking or not.
Goldman Sachs gives recession a 25% chance.
Learn more: Reuters
My Thoughts
While reading news like this, it is always good to see the people who made these predictions.
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist at JP Morgan, in an interview for CNBC looks rather calm, saying the risks are there, but there are still plays that could avoid the recession - stronger consumer spending or good labor market data.
Things can get uglier before they turn better, even for a longer period.
However, remember October 2022 — Everyone was screaming recession and blaming the Fed for increasing rates.
It was also the best time to buy, and the S&P 500 has +46% since then.
To me, it is important not to make hasty decisions. I still have bonds ready to buy the dip. I’m also using only small leverage and prepared to withstand an even longer market correction.
Events to watch this week
Source: Leonardo AI
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