Dear Investors,

Welcome to the banana zone…

It was a fantastic month and kept us all very busy.

So many opportunities in markets, especially in crypto.

I hope you didn’t panic and rather enjoyed this wild ride.

In This Letter

• Post-election effect

  • I have a little something for you 🎁

• Macro

  • What to take out of it?

• Crypto

  • Expected regulatory changes following the US elect …

  • New ETFs are coming

    • Solana

    • Chainlink, Avalanche, LTC

  • $100 billion milestone reached

Post-election effect

We mentioned a few times that both candidates would be good for the markets, but Trump is a rocket fuel, especially for crypto.

And that’s exactly what happened.

• Crypto market is up 48.35%

• BTC is up 38.5%

• ETH is up 47.7%

• And our portfolio? +54%

The market is overbought, and some correction is imminent.

The question is: Can we afford to stay out?

Macro

Everything is green, we can celebrate, right?

Almost.

A side effect of the election rally is the strengthening of the US dollar.

Dollar strength is holding stock markets back.

And what’s more, Bitcoin is even more correlated.

According to Sam Callahan and Lyn Alden, Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period.

That is higher than any other major asset class, such as S&P 500 or Gold.

With a strong US Dollar, the Global Money Supply (M2) is declining.

Many analysts expect a 15-20% correction to align the BTC price with the M2.

However…

In the last FOMC, Andreas Larsen believes the FED is discussing a put for USD liquidity.

This could support the USD liquidity developments as early as December 2024.

What to take out of it?

Bitcoin rallied too quickly.

A correction might happen in December or early January.

One way or another, the M2 is estimated to rise to ~127t (from current 105t) by Q1 2026.

Since the global M2 bottomed in Q4 2022, liquidity rose from $94t to $105t (+11,7%).

In that time, Bitcoin price quadrupled — from 25k to nearly 100k.

Imagine what would an M2 increase of 21% do to the price?

Current estimates are in the $140k-$180k range.

Crypto